Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall by Peter Turchin

Author:Peter Turchin [Turchin, Peter]
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9780691180779
Google: RG_AtAEACAAJ
Publisher: PrincetonUP
Published: 2018-05-15T19:35:12+00:00

6.5 SUMMARY

• When a growing empire adds territory inhabited by people who are ethnically different from its core ethnie, it is expected that the initial loyalty of the incorporated ethnie toward the empire will not be high. The subsequent development of the geopolitical power of the empire will depend very much on whether, and if yes how fast, the newly incorporated population (and/or its elites) assimilates to the core ethnie.

• In this chapter I considered three basic sets of assumptions about how people switch their ethnic identity (a process that may involve linguistic assimilation, religious conversion, etc.).

• The noninteractive model posits that each nonassimilated individual has a constant probability of switching ethnic identity (per unit of time). Such an assimilation process results in asymptotic dynamics.

• The autocatalytic model assumes that assimilation occurs as a result of direct interpersonal attachments. The dynamics predicted by the autocatalytic model are the S-shaped logistic curve.

• The threshold model postulates an even more nonlinear mode of conversion: The rate of assimilation is positive if the proportion already assimilated is over a certain threshold. Otherwise, the assimilation rate is negative, leading to the inverse process in which core individuals assimilate to the peripheral identity. The dynamics of the threshold model are metastable.

• Next, I consider spatial extensions of all three models. The noninteractive model is not affected by adding space.

• The spatial autocatalytic model behaves globally in a logistic fashion if the social contact distribution is characterized by a thick tail. What this means in practice is that the assimilation process will not run out of potential subjects, if the already assimilated individuals manage to keep their social networks open, and thus continue reaching out and entering into new and distant social networks. If the contact distribution has a thin tail, then after an initial period of accelerated growth, expansion settles to a linear increase with time. Finally, if there are segments of population poorly connected to the rest, they may remain as unassimilated islands in perpetuity.

• The spatial threshold model suggests that an assimilation process is difficult to get started. A critical mass of assimilated population has to be established in some locality, before the assimilation can start spreading. The spread, if successful, is linear. Gaps in social contacts can lead to a stable coexistence of two or more ethnic identities (this outcome is even easier to achieve than in the autocatalytic model).

• To determine which of the three simple alternative models describes the historical dynamics of identity switching, I investigated several data sets on religious conversion. I contrasted predictions only from nonspatial models, since I lack spatial data. The data concerned conversion to Islam in Iran and Spain, the rise of Christianity in the Roman Empire, and the growth of the Mormon church.

• In all case studies, by far the best model turned out to be the autocatalytic process. The initial acceleration period, predicted by the autocatalytic model, was obvious in all case studies. The autocatalytic model generated predictions of remarkable accuracy (greater than 99% of the variance explained in three out of four cases).

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